Tour de France Strava tipping & stage 16 preview


2016-07-18 00:00:00


 Last weeks contest:    

Last weeks stage 6 tipping comp produced a surprise winner in Greg Van Avermaet, and therefore no winner.


 This weeks contest:    


Pick the winner of Stage 16, from Moirans-en-Montagne - Berne, 206 km. If nobody picks second place then the closest top 10 pick will win.


 Stage 16 preview:    


In stage 16 the Tour enters Berne in Switzerland, Fabian Cancellara's home town, and the 3rd foreign country of this years Tour. The stage is a relatively long one at 206 km and has a difficult finish with a 600m 6.5% climb before a flat final kilometer.


The stage is only moderately hilly, so on first sight it may appear the final opportunity for the sprint teams, but on closer inspection it is likely too difficult for the fastest sprinters whilst being too easy for the general classification contenders, and therefore likely to be won by a rider from a breakaway group.    

The stage's highest point is 939 meters elevation and it's lowest is 436m, whilst the starting point is 576m elevation (or only 57m elevation below the popular Mt Dandenong hill climb in Melbourne Victoria).


With this being Fabian Cancellara's final Tour de France a win would be nothing short of a fairy tale, but with Cancellara approaching the end of his career his form doesn't appear strong enough. Look for Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans, Michael Matthews, Peter Sagan, Julian Alaphilippe or Alexander Kristoff.


 Betting Odds:    


Betting odds currently have Sagan, Kristoff, Cavendish, Cancellara and Kittel as the top 5 respectively but with a 6.5% gradient climb near the finish Cavendish is an extreme long shot. Tom Dumoulin at 150-1 is also a long shot but possibly more likely than a Cavendish win, and certainly better value.


 Tour de France stage 16 route:    

 

 Tour de France stage 16 profile:    

 

    Ruben Plaza Molina, the winner of stage 16 of the 2015 Tour de France